Modelling pathogen spread in a hospital network

Speaker(s)

Agata Lonc

Affiliation

Szkoła doktorska nauk ścisłych i przyrodniczych UW

Language of the talk

English

Date

Dec. 3, 2025, 2:15 p.m.

Room

room 5070

Seminar

Seminar of Biomathematics and Game Theory Group

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In this talk I will present a mathematical framework for modelling pathogen spread across a network of interconnected hospitals. The problem is formulated using two different approaches: an ordinary differential equation model which describes continuous progression, and an impulsive differential equation model to represent discrete patient transfers between the hospitals. The analysis focuses on the long-term behaviour of the solutions, utilising the properties of cascade dynamical systems and monotone dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the eventual fate of the pathogen - whether it persists or is eradicated - is solely determined by the basic reproduction number.

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